Here are a few charts that caught our attention recently:
Last week’s monthly nonfarm payroll was disappointing, but it usually takes a long time for jobs to come back after a recession, so maybe we shouldn’t have been so surprised. In fact, looking at the 10 previous recessions, it took 30 months on average to recover all the jobs that were lost. Given we still have 8 million jobs to make up this time, we could still be quite a ways away from getting the labor market back to where we were pre-COVID-19.
The current bull market has tracked the start to the 2009 bull market nearly perfectly. “Be aware that right about now is when the 2009 bull finally took a break, falling more than 16% into the summer,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We don’t expect that type of a pullback this time, but after an 89% rally, maybe a pullback or consolidation is in the cards.”
Copper is breaking out to new highs after consolidating for 15 years. The last time it did that it eventually gained more than 150%. Every time is different, but with the global economy soaring back and demand for copper not ending anytime soon, we expect this industrial metal to continue to lead.
We also keep an eye on the presidential cycle. We are now past President Biden’s first 100 days and choppy action with a new President in Office is perfectly normal right about now.
The financial press has discussed the well-known “sell in May and go away” market saying, but did you know it actually starts on May 5th? As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, the middle part of May is historically quite weak for stocks as the broadly weaker period begins. The calendar, you could say, isn’t doing anyone any favors even if the economy still is.
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