FINANCIAL BLOG

LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.

The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.

As we wrote in our recent Rate and Credit View, the case for global bonds has strengthened as the structure of fixed income markets — and the sources of risk within them — have become increasingly asymmetric. The U.S. bond market represents less than half of global fixed income outstanding, yet many portfolios remain overwhelmingly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and credit, effectively tying outcomes to a single fiscal authority, a single central bank, and domestic yield cur

Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.

As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong.

Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.

Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example.

In our 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine, we listed several risks to stocks that could prevent the S&P 500 from achieving our forecast for high-single-digit returns in 2026 (to a fair value target range of 7,300–7,400). One was narrow stock market leadership. Well, as mega cap technology leadership faded in recent months, the cyclicals and defensives picked up the slack.

Dividend strategies, a.k.a. equity income strategies, have outperformed to start the year, owing to the value-led cyclical rotation we are seeing in domestic equity markets. Looking beyond current performance, this week, we ask and answer the question “How should I think about dividend stocks or building an equity income portfolio?”

LPL Research’s Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) sits at the center of our portfolio construction process because it defines how we expect diversified portfolios to generate more stable long‑term outcomes across shifting market environments. The SAA is the long‑term plan for how major asset classes work together in a portfolio.

Wall Street narratives rarely stay still, and recent weeks have underscored how quickly sentiment can change as perceived new information challenges the status quo. Widely discussed anxiety over a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble fueled by relentless capital spending on data center infrastructure has now transitioned into a broader set of worries about industry‑level disruption driven by rapidly advancing AI platforms.

After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited.

The melt‑up in the metals market that defined 2025 has extended its strength into the early weeks of the new year, reinforcing the commodity sector’s position as one of the leading asset classes across global markets. To the surprise of most, gold outperformed the broader equity market for a third consecutive year, surging roughly 65% in 2025 and far exceeding the S&P 500’s gains.

Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report. Results will come from some big names, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) on Wednesday; and Blackrock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday.

With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations.

There have been plenty of catalysts supporting the broader market’s recovery from the correction lows set last month. Oversold conditions fueled by indiscriminate selling left the S&P 500 with washed-out market breadth and a hard reset of its lofty valuation. First quarter earnings season came in much better than feared, and most companies unexpectedly did not pull forward guidance.

Our 2026 fixed income outlook calls for a rangebound rate environment, cautious Fed policy, and a modest increase in spreads within corporate credit markets. Markets expect the Fed to lower the fed funds rate to around 3%, likely keeping the 10-year Treasury yield between 3.75% and 4.25%. Inflation remains above target, limiting aggressive cuts, so returns may be income-driven.

The bull market appears poised to extend its run in 2026, fueled by ongoing enthusiasm around AI and further easing of monetary policy from the Fed. However, with valuations running high and midterm election years often bringing more volatility, gains may be more tempered in 2026.

In our Weekly Market Commentary on November 17, we previewed our Outlook 2026 publication, due out on December 9. We highlighted several keys for markets next year, covering the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. This week, we broaden our preview and tease some other factors investors will want to consider when thinking about investing in 2026.