FINANCIAL BLOG

LPL Research outlines how a Fed on hold, strong reinvestment demand, and elevated yields create compelling opportunities in municipal bonds.

The S&P 500 settled a whirlwind July moderately lower but maintained healthy year-to-date gains. Just one month into the second half, some of our key market themes cited in LPL's Midyear Outlook 2026 wasted no time making themselves known.

Weekly Market Commentary Markets Blog LPL Research explores whether hyperscalers can generate attractive returns on massive AI investments through a framework focused on ROIC, growth, and capex. Market context: The first half of 2026 was a tale of two quarters for U.S. equity markets, as the S&P 500 experienced a drawdown of ~4.5% in the first quarter, followed by a ~15% rally in the second quarter. As investors look forward to the second half, the artificial intelligence (AI

LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.

Coming into 2026, we expected inflation to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, the Fed to cut rates by roughly 75 basis points (bps), and Treasury yields to drift lower.

A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.

LPL Research examines Warsh’s evolving Fed approach, infrastructure-led growth, and the impact of China demand on oil prices.

The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window.

LPL Research analyzes bond markets as yields rise, exploring Fed policy expectations, inflation trends, and whether bad news is already priced into Treasuries.

We agree with the consensus view that stock valuations are elevated by traditional measures. But valuations should be considered in the context of the economic regime and earnings environment.

LPL Research explores opportunities in agriculture as supply risks and fertilizer constraints reshape commodity markets and support potential gains.

Headlines surrounding the Middle East have dominated investor attention since late February. While uncertainty remains elevated, diplomatic negotiations have supported equities, even as fixed income and commodity markets continue to reflect potential risks.

LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.

The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.

As we wrote in our recent Rate and Credit View, the case for global bonds has strengthened as the structure of fixed income markets — and the sources of risk within them — have become increasingly asymmetric. The U.S. bond market represents less than half of global fixed income outstanding, yet many portfolios remain overwhelmingly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and credit, effectively tying outcomes to a single fiscal authority, a single central bank, and domestic yield cur

Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.

As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong.

Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.

Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example.

In our 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine, we listed several risks to stocks that could prevent the S&P 500 from achieving our forecast for high-single-digit returns in 2026 (to a fair value target range of 7,300–7,400). One was narrow stock market leadership. Well, as mega cap technology leadership faded in recent months, the cyclicals and defensives picked up the slack.