Weekly Market Performance — January 30, 2026

Markets Blog

David Matzko, LPL Research

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of January 26, 2026. Capital markets continued to face a variety of moving pieces, this time, ranging from high-profile earnings, central bank developments from Washington, and volatile commodities and currency market trading. U.S. stocks ultimately ended mostly lower after retracing early-week gains on rekindled artificial intelligence (AI) scrutiny, and markets parsed the nomination for the next U.S. central bank chair. European equities rose slightly and secured an extension of their monthly win streak, while Asian equities were mixed. Elsewhere, a slide in the dollar and a rally in the yen dominated headlines.

Stock Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: Stocks closed the final week of January trading mostly lower amid volatile headlines spanning tariff threats, corporate earnings, and macro developments, but managed to hold on to monthly gains. After a solid Monday advance, the S&P 500 scored a fresh all-time high amid a light rotation back toward index heavyweights — which dented small caps — ahead of the first big tech earnings of the quarter (alongside over 100 S&P 500 reports) and the January Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. After central bankers held rates steady as expected, and policy statement tweaks hardly budged markets or rate cut expectations, major averages were roiled by a tech sell-off Thursday as AI spending scrutiny returned to the spotlight. Magnificent Seven member Microsoft (MSFT) was among the hardest hit names after hiked spending guidance collided with a slight shortfall in Azure cloud growth, sparking concerns around the sustainability of the AI-fueled rally. Stocks ultimately trimmed losses with help from broadening under the surface, but trading could be summarized by the tale of two big tech names as shares of Meta (META) surged on AI monetization tailwinds following its quarterly update.

Apple (AAPL) rounded out the week’s high-profile reports, beating estimates but noting rising storage costs, leaving shares moderately lower Friday. Also in the thick of a busy earnings week was memory maker SanDisk (SNDK) extending its soaring start to 2026 on a strong revenue and earnings outlook. Nonetheless, risk appetite remained limited Friday as months of speculation surrounding the next Fed chair ended after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, who’s seen as less supportive of deep rate cuts.

International Equities: Across the pond, the STOXX 600 printed a moderate advance, securing its longest monthly win streak since August 2021. Regional sentiment received a lift after the European Union and India capped two decades of negotiations to conclude a free-trade agreement, but corporate headlines broadly dominated focus. Among highlights, Dutch chipmaker ASML gained ground after delivering strong quarterly orders and a €12 billion buyback plan, shares of Swatch Group jumped as investors shrugged off a big fiscal year EBIT miss to focus on solid 2026 growth guidance, and Adidas and Electrolux offered better-than-forecast profits. However, consumer discretionary names were weighed down by thwarted hopes of a luxury sector rejuvenation after Paris-based luxury conglomerate LVMH delivered a larger-than-expected decline in leather goods and fashion sales.

Meanwhile, Asian equities ended mixed with a few moving pieces in play. Japanese markets were front and center with both the Nikkei and Topix posting fairly sharp losses, dragged lower by exporters amid notable yen strength as markets speculated that Tokyo may intervene to support the currency. On the other end of the spectrum, tech shares helped power another weekly surge for South Korea after chipmaker SK Hynix posted strong quarterly results and was unveiled as the sole high-bandwidth memory provider for MFST’s AI chips. In greater China, mainland benchmarks were mixed to little changed after property stocks pared gains fueled by easing regulations for developers, while Hong Kong rallied with market chatter tabbing inflows as a result of dollar weakness.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index were little changed over the last five days. As expected, the Fed left short-term interest rates unchanged at this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and updated its economic growth and inflation forecasts to be more balanced. This likely means the bar for additional rate cuts remains fairly high. The muted reaction from the bond market following the January meeting suggests the Fed’s decision was in line with market expectations, as the probability of a cut going into the meeting was barely above 0%. The Treasury yield curve has also flattened this year as rate-cut expectations continue to be priced out, leaving the hurdle for adding duration higher (as interest-rate sensitivity is less attractive), but conversely, higher yields for shorter tenors make the front end of the curve more compelling.

This week’s FOMC meeting went pretty much as expected, but after a long and fairly guarded selection process, President Trump ultimately nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair. The Treasury yield curve steepened following the announcement, with shorter-maturity yields falling while longer yields moved slightly higher as markets have started pricing in more rate cuts this year. Warsh served as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis, and he’s known for favoring a more disciplined approach to monetary policy, expressing concerns over long‑term balance‑sheet expansion, and warning about “groupthink” within central banks. If confirmed, he’ll step into a divided Fed and may push for faster rate cuts even with inflation still running somewhat elevated.

Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex edged higher this week as commodities and currencies rapidly became one of the hot topics of the week. The U.S. dollar faced outsized downward pressure as the Japanese yen strengthened on speculation that officials may intervene to prevent further weakness, while reports that Washington may support these efforts contributed to volatility for the greenback. The two major currencies ended the week by reversing a portion of their weekly moves with the dollar paced its best day since last July on President Trump’s Fed chair nomination, while the yen wiped out nearly 1% of its weekly advance. The late week strength in the dollar accelerated a plunge in precious metals that saw gold and silver erase strong weekly gains after the yellow metal briefly surpassed $5,500/ounce and its more industrial focused counterpart touched $120/ounce. Also in commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded higher as the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran kept traders on edge, while natural gas rose again this week on another forecast for winter weather across the East coast.

Economic Weekly Roundup

(Slightly) More Consensus at the FOMC. The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep rates unchanged. Two Committee voters — Waller and Miran — dissented in favor of a cut after several dissented for various reasons at the last meeting.

• Wednesday’s statement was a bit more nuanced. It seems most officials think labor markets are showing signs of stabilizing. That’s different than the view espoused in December of ongoing weakness in the labor market.

• Officials removed the statement about “downside risks to employment.” This is consistent with the confusing signs we currently have of low unemployment claims numbers but also low hiring rates across industries.

• No more shifting balance of risks. This is extremely noteworthy for how we build expectations for future FOMC meetings.

  
  

Bottom Line: Given the more likely FOMC view that dual risks of inflation and unemployment are mostly in balance, we should not expect any change in policy at the March meeting. Further, the March meeting will include the updated Summary of Economic Projections. We expect the first cut will come later this year, as inflation should decelerate with housing pressures easing and businesses moving past tariff passthroughs.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Jan final), ISM Manufacturing report (Jan), U.S. Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates, 2025 Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision — slated for release between Feb 1 and Feb 10

• Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings report (Dec), Wards Total Vehicle Sales (Jan)

• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 30), ADP Employment Change (Jan), S&P Global U.S. Services and Composite PMIs (Jan final), ISM Services Index (Jan), U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement

• Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts (Jan), Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 31), Continuing Claims (Jan 24)

• Friday: Change in Nonfarm, Private, and Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan), Average Hourly Earnings (Jan), Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Jan), Unemployment Rate (Jan), Labor Force Participation Rate (Jan), Underemployment Rate (Jan), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Feb preliminary), Consumer Credit (Dec)

  
  

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