Weekly Market Performance — September 25, 2026

Markets Blog

David Matzko, LPL Research

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of September 21, 2026. U.S. and international equities rebounded this week, with the S&P 500 snapping a two-week slide while the Nasdaq-100 reached a fresh record intra-week. Easing oil prices, renewed AI enthusiasm, and hopes for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East improved risk sentiment. However, a sharp rise in Treasury yields dented equity gains and spurred some volatility across markets before stabilizing Friday. Overseas, European shares snapped their own losing streak, while Asia delivered mixed results. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened and gold prices fell.

Stock Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: The S&P 500 snapped back-to-back weekly declines as stocks delivered a mostly higher week despite volatile trading across capital markets. A six-month high in Strait of Hormuz traffic, a recovery in Saudi exports, and hopes for diplomatic progress at this week’s United Nations summit boosted risk appetite this week as upward pressure on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index posted its first record high since June as the artificial intelligence and momentum trades felt the tailwind of some newfound optimism after META’s AI agent, Muse, displayed early signs of success. The fresh wave of optimism helped chipmakers extend last week's gains, having risen in seven of the last nine sessions through Friday.

It was not a one-way street higher, however. Stocks trimmed week-to-date gains as worries of additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes returned to the spotlight after a surprise acceleration in U.S. business activity in September collided with a weak five-year auction, sending Treasury yields to multi-decade highs. Nonetheless, oil’s rally lost some steam and yields stabilized Friday following reports of a potential phased U.S.-Iran deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz — allowing stocks to close the week on a positive note.

International Equities: European equities also advanced, printing the first weekly gain in the last four weeks for the STOXX 600. Early week gains on hopes of a clearing inflation and interest rate landscape padded the regional benchmark, while late week optimism around a durable U.S.-Iran resolution helped the energy-sensitive region hold gains. On the macro front, volatile oil prices and bond yields broadly overshadowed Eurozone business activity growing at its fastest pace in three years and a strong business climate survey in Germany.

In Asia-Pacific markets, major exchanges ended mixed amid a holiday thinned week. Japanese benchmarks were among outperformers, advancing in just a two-day trading week after the Silver Week holiday as tech shares caught up with recent AI gains and investors scooped up shares ahead of the ex-dividend date. Elsewhere, after an upbeat start to the week sparked by hopes of policy support, mainland China reversed gains as Beijing reportedly opened probes regarding data security at AI firms DeepSeek and Moonshot in response to Anthropic’s claim that the companies were sending sensitive data through Claude. Hong Kong also slid heading into the weekend amid tech selling and few concrete developments from the Trump-Xi summit. South Korea and Taiwan both rose.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index ended sharply lower this week after a midweek selloff. The 10-year yield spiked above 5.22%, the highest since June 2007, breaking through the 5% ceiling it had bounced against for two weeks. The selling was broad rather than long-end specific, with the 2-year rising to its highest levels since May 2024 and the 30-year climbed to its highest levels since July 2004. Yields from 5 years and out now all yield 5%. The move higher in yields was a growth and inflation scare, not a fiscal one per se. The fastest growth in S&P flash PMI in over five years pointed to supply chain bottlenecks and input costs jumping at the steepest rate in four years, driven by the September rise in oil prices. Hawkish Fedspeak added upward pressure while the Treasury's five-year auction was abysmal — all in the same session.

Wednesday's five-year auction cleared at 5.033%, the highest auction yield since at least 2006 and some of the worst auction statistics in years. Overall demand was weak; indirect buyers (such as households, hedge funds, and foreign buyers) didn’t show up and Treasury had to pay an extra three basis points to generate that lackluster demand. Treasury's announcement of another $6 billion long-bond buyback for Thursday fell flat as buybacks are a tool for smoothing liquidity, not fighting a repricing of the Fed path.

Wednesday was the largest one-day move in the 10-year since April 7, 2025, when it surged 16.6 basis points during the tariff shock. In level terms, it is far more significant: 5.10% is a 19-year high, and the 10-year has added roughly 50 basis points over four weeks and 101 basis points from a year ago. Single-day 10-year moves of 13 basis points or more have historically occurred only a few times a year, so this qualified as a genuine outlier. The difference from April 2025 is that today's move came with the two-year rising in lockstep. That was a policy repricing, not a liquidity event or a term premium tantrum. Without forward guidance, the two-year is doing the Fed's talking. At 4.90% against a 3.75–4.00% funds rate, the front end is pricing three to four more hikes (more than the Fed itself has signaled). That gap either closes when the data cools and the front-end rallies, or the Fed validates it.

Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodity complex was little changed Friday afternoon, pulling back to the flatline from mid-week peaks. Crude oil trading was top of mind this week as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held above $100 per barrel after touching a four-month high of $106 intraday on Tuesday. Commodity investors faced volatile headlines around the Saudi East-West pipeline, highlighted by the critical Strait of Hormuz alternative being shuttered as a result of drone strikes sending prices higher before reports that Saudi Aramco stated it may come back online within days. Nonetheless, losses were limited after the oil and gas giant stated it will not provide crude allocations to two European refiners next month, while satellite imagery indicated that three (rather than the initially reported two) pumping stations were damaged along the East-West pipeline following the recent attacks. Gasoline prices rose over 5%. Outside of energy, gold aimed to climb back near $4,400/ounce, while silver prices also settled higher. In currencies, the dollar strengthened as a result of Wednesday’s Fed rate hike, with some additional support from traders placing downward pressure on the yen after the Bank of Japan’s split vote to tighten monetary policy.

Economic Weekly Roundup

Median Prices Fall as Demand Slows. Key Talking Points from the August New Home Sales release:

• Softer demand for new homes should bring down the median price even further, especially as mortgage rates rise.

• The median sales price of new single-family homes has steadily declined since its 2022 peak. Despite higher mortgage rates and softer demand, prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

• Sales in the West and Northeast continue to weaken, in sharp contrast to the stronger uptrend in the South. The second-order effects of rising housing activity should provide support for retail spending and related consumer activity across the region.

• Mortgage rates stand near their highest level since 2025, though still below the October 2023 peak of 8.0%. Given ongoing pressures in Treasury markets, it would not be surprising to see mortgage rates move higher from here.

• The gap between prevailing mortgage rates and the effective mortgage rates paid by existing homeowners has widened. This gap helps explain the lock-in effect that continues to constrain activity in the existing-home market. New-home sales will need to accelerate significantly to offset the limited supply of existing homes. For now, the housing outlook remains challenging. Residential investment will likely subtract 0.3 percentage points from growth.

Bottom Line: Elevated mortgage rates and the persistent lock-in effect continue to limit overall housing turnover. As a result, housing is unlikely to become a contributor to economic growth in the near term, though stronger activity in the South should support consumer spending and regional economic resilience.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Sep)

• Tuesday: FHFA House Price Index (Jul), S&P Case-Shiller U.S. 20-City and National House Price Index (Jul), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep), JOLTS Job Report (Aug), Dallas Fed Services Activity (Sep)

• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 25), ADP Employment Change (Sep), Retail Inventories (Aug), BEA Annual Revisions to GDP and Personal Income, Personal Income and Spending (Aug), Headline and Core PCE Price Index (Aug), GDP Annualized (2Q third reading), Personal Consumption (2Q third reading), Core PCE Price Index (2Q third reading), Advance Goods Trade Balance (Aug), Wholesale Inventories (Aug preliminary), MNI Chicago PMI (Sep)

• Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts (Sep), Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 26), Continuing Claims (Sep 19), S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Sep final), ISM Manufacturing (Sep), Construction Spending (Aug), Omdia Total Vehicle Sales (Sep)

• Friday: Change in Nonfarm, Private, and Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep), Average Hourly Earnings (Sep), Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Sep), Unemployment Rate (Sep), Factory Orders (Aug), Durable Goods Orders (Aug final), Capital Goods Orders and Shipments (Aug final)

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

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Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

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