Weekly Market Performance — September 19, 2025

Markets Blog

David Matzko, LPL Research

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of September 15, 2025. The U.S. stock market delivered yet another record-setting week with major large and small cap benchmarks scoring fresh records. This week’s risk-on mood arrived in the wake of the Federal Reserve (Fed) resuming its rate-cutting cycle after an eight-month pause, while international markets faced monetary policy decisions of their own. European and Asian equities ended mixed, while U.S. Treasuries slipped as the bond market worked to reset expectations of a less dovish than expected Fed in 2026. In commodities and currencies, crude oil prices were little changed while gold and the U.S. dollar advanced.

Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: Stocks built on last week’s record-setting week with another solid advance and a fresh batch of all-time highs. The September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, D.C. was the uncontested highlight of the week, where policy makers voted to reduce rates by 0.25%, as expected, resuming the rate-cutting cycle that began nearly a year earlier to the day. Stocks’ initial reaction Wednesday afternoon was muted, as markets were priced in anticipation of the widely expected cut; however, major averages moved higher Thursday to set the first ‘quad-fecta’ record in nearly four years. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all set fresh records, as well as the Russell 2000 small cap index, earning its first all-time high since November 2021. Big tech names returned to leadership in the two sessions following the rate cut, after taking a breather early in the week in response to Beijing initiating an anti-trust probe into NVIDIA (NVDA). Broadly, Wall Street bulls powered stocks higher to end the week, trading near record levels, amid quarterly ‘triple-witching’ options expiry.

In corporate updates, shares of FedEx (FDX) traded higher after topping earnings estimates and reinstating its full-year sales and profit forecasts Thursday afternoon — but the logistics giant did note an expected $1 billion hit from trade uncertainty this year. Plus, artificial intelligence (AI) related names received a boost after NVIDIA (NVDA) agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel (INTC).

International Equities: European equities were broadly mixed, leaving the regional benchmark STOXX 600 slightly lower over the last five days. The region dropped on Tuesday as investors took some risk off the table ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate decision alongside some tariff jitters, as the U.S. was reportedly considering fresh auto part levies. Nonetheless, European stocks received a lift from Wednesday’s Fed rate cut to return near the week-to-date unchanged point before attention turned to Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. London central bankers voted to hold rates steady, hinting at gradual future policy easing while stating balance sheet reductions will slow. French markets remained in the spotlight, outperforming on political optimism after new Prime Minister Lecornu showed a willingness to compromise on methods to reduce the deficit; however, negotiations with Socialist party leaders reportedly stalled with a stout ultimatum of accept wealth taxation or risk government collapse.

Asian stocks were mixed on the week. South Korea topped the leaderboard as technology enthusiasm and optimism around authorities rescinding a lower capital gains tax threshold spilled over from last week, powering weekly outperformance and fresh records. Chip stocks drove more measured weekly gains for Taiwan, while Japan’s benchmarks ended mixed. Japanese equities closed the week on a down note, with indexes briefly touching intraday highs before reversing course after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held rates steady and unveiled plans to liquidate its ETF and REIT stockpile. Hong Kong posted mild gains while mainland China fell as artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds were offset by profit-taking and weaker-than-expected economic data, sparking debates around whether additional stimulus measures are warranted.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded lower on the week, falling below the weekly unchanged point on Thursday and Friday after steadying after Wednesday’s rate decision. This marked the first weekly decline for the Treasury market since mid-August as yields moved higher in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempering hopes for an aggressive series of interest rate cuts. While central bankers’ latest rate cut projections pointed to the possibility of additional cuts before the end of 2025, forecasts and remarks from Powell appeared to fall short of the bond market’s optimistic expectations. Meanwhile, fixed income investors received a welcome piece of news as Treasury Department data indicated that foreign investors increased their holdings in U.S. Treasuries in July. Additions to Treasury stockpiles in France and the U.K. more than offset a holdings reduction in China, while broad takeaways from the data surrounded easing concerns of U.S. Treasuries losing their premier safe haven status, which dominated headlines earlier in 2025.

Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex traded lower over the last five days, reversing early gains to close out the week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was little changed this week, steadily trimming gains after an early week jump in response to fresh sanctions on Russian oil from the European Union (EU). Simultaneously, reports of increased production from the African nation of Angola in 2026 also acted as a headwind on prices alongside demand concerns following weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data (bearish for oil demand). Gold prices were set for a healthy advance despite the slight headwind from commodities traders taking Wednesday’s Fed decision as less dovish than expected. However, the yellow metal continues to receive support from central bank buying and bets on future monetary policy easing. Remarks from the central bank that future rate cuts will be made on a “meeting-by-meeting" basis also supported the dollar, which gained ground following the conclusion of the September Fed meeting and signals of a potentially more gradual pace of easing. Elsewhere, the yen strengthened against the dollar after whipsawing Friday in response to an unexpected dissent in the BOJ’s decision to hold interest rates.

Economic Weekly Roundup

The Insurance Cut. The FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, pushing the range down to 4.00–4.25%. Although inflation is above target, the committee cut rates as a way to ensure the economy continues to grow. Stephen Miran, the newest member of the Board of Governors, was the only dissenter. He preferred a 50 basis point cut in the fed funds rate. In an act of solidarity, both Governors Waller and Bowman joined the majority with the recent decision. The committee believes the downside risks to employment are large enough to start the rate-cutting cycle. But perhaps the committee has some explaining to do — they revised up growth projections for this year and next, while at the same time, revising up inflation expectations for next year. According to committee members, inflation will not likely reach the 2% target until 2028.

Investors are taking this decision in stride. The most encouraging part of this statement is the 11-1 decision, giving a sense of greater unanimity than what we were expecting. As the risks to labor markets rise, we should expect further cuts in October and December.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)

• Tuesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (Sep), Current Account Balance (2Q), S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs (Sep preliminary), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep), Richmond Fed Business Conditions (Sep)

• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 19), New Home Sales (Aug), Building Permits (Aug final)

• Thursday: BEA Annual Update of National Economic Accounts, Advance Goods Trade Balance (Aug), Wholesale Inventories (Aug preliminary), Retail Inventories (Aug), GDP Annualized (2Q third reading), Personal Consumption (2Q third reading), GDP Price Index (2Q third reading), Core PCE Price Index (2Q third reading), Durable Goods Orders (Aug preliminary), Capital Goods Orders and Shipments (Aug preliminary), Initial Jobless Claims (Sept 20), Continuing Claims (Sep 13), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Sep)

• Friday: Personal Income and Spending (Aug), Real Personal Spending (Aug), Headline and Core PCE Price Index (Aug), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Sep final), Kansas City Fed Services Activity (Sep), Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey (Sept)

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

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The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.

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