Weekly Market Performance — April 25, 2025

Markets Blog

David Matzko, LPL Research

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of April 21, 2025. Stocks rallied this week, paring back monthly losses as trade war escalation concerns ebbed. Upbeat headlines on the U.S-China trade spat supported domestic and international equities, sending Europe and Asia higher this week as well. Treasury bonds also advanced, sending yields lower, for the second consecutive week and the dollar printed a weekly decline as the “sell America” narrative took a breather. In commodities, crude oil and gold both ended lower.

Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: U.S. stocks clawed back April declines this week, stringing together strong gains throughout the middle of the week. The growth-laden Nasdaq earned bragging rights of outperformer among the three major averages, followed closely by a strong bounce in the S&P 500 while the Dow also advanced.

Trade policy off-ramps were credited with driving this week’s bounce after President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. and China will likely be able to strike a trade deal, substantially reducing China’s tariff duties. Further, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the Beijing-Washington tariff standoff is unsustainable and likely to de-escalate, and Friday headlines suggested China is considering exemptions from some U.S. goods, including semiconductors. Reports also indicated progress on trade agreements with Japan, India, and South Korea. Market sentiment received further repair as Federal Reserve (Fed) independence jitters were assuaged after the President stated Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s position was safe (even if he doesn’t cut rates).

Thin liquidity helped exacerbate gains throughout the majority of the week, while mostly positive earnings takeaways were also flagged as support for equities. Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) topped estimates in a big way Thursday afternoon, also reiterating its $75 billion full-year artificial intelligence (AI) investment. One day prior, fellow Magnificent Seven member Tesla (TSLA) fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Nonetheless, the market liked TSLA’s reiteration of its Robotaxi concept and affordable vehicle timing, in addition to CEO Elon Musk’s comments about dialing back his government work. Other notable earnings beats included General Electric (GE), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and 3M (MMM), however the market noted a lackluster outlook from Intel (INTC).

International Equities: Much like the U.S., European equities ended higher amid a relatively light macro calendar but busy week for earnings. Following Monday’s market closure for the Easter Monday holiday, improving global trade headlines encouraged investors to take on more risk whilst digesting corporate results. Winners included German sportswear maker Adidas and French pharmaceutical company Sanofi, as well as building materials producer Saint-Gobain and aerospace and defense equipment maker Safran topping earnings and revenue estimates, respectively. On the other hand, French banking services provider BNP Paribas and Helsinki-based communications firm Nokia underwhelmed investors. On the macro front, flash composite PMI results ticked down again to a four-month low Wednesday morning, weighed down by a slowdown in the services sector.

Major Asian markets ended higher as the broader region recouped post-April 2 tariff announcement losses. Positive trade headlines and potential deals with Washington dominated market focus over the last five days, aiding still fragile sentiment. Mainland China and Hong Kong diverged slightly this week with mainland indexes chopping along to end the week mixed to slightly higher while the Hang Seng led the region. Japan closed with strong gains on the back of a Friday rally in tech shares, while Taiwan and South Korea also ended in positive territory.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index traded higher this week amid signs that the White House is aiming to temper ongoing trade tensions. The rate-sensitive two-year yield traded four basis points (0.04%) lower while the 10-year yield traded six (0.06%) basis points lower.

Treasuries printed their second consecutive weekly rally (yields lower), nearly erasing April losses in the process. Treasury prices were supported by dovish-leaning remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials including Governor Christopher Waller stating the central bank would be forced to act if the labor market unraveled, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack’s message that the Fed could move in June if clear and convincing data is present. The statements revived rate cut bets and fueled a bond rally, and markets are currently pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a cut in June. This week’s bond rally coincided with a rebound in the dollar and equities as the “sell America” narrative lost steam, and the Trump administration’s softer trade stance displayed this week will likely be supportive for the bond market going forward, if a similar tone holds.

Commodities and Currencies: The Bloomberg Commodities Index ended slightly lower following choppy trading over the last five days. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude moved lower after facing a sharp mid-week drop as markets grappled with a potential OPEC+ output increase, the latest trade headlines, and more U.S.-Iran uranium enrichment talks (which could lead to easing oil sanctions). Additionally, steps in the right direction in ending the war in Ukraine also placed downward pressure on oil prices. Gold erased early week gains near $3,500/ounce to end lower amid headlines of cooling trade tensions between the U.S. and China as investors rotated back to riskier pockets of the market. The dollar ended higher, sealing its first weekly gain of April, lifted by hopes of trade war easing and calls that the “sell America” move is overdone in this week’s rotation back to dollar denominated assets.

Economic Weekly Roundup

U.S. Homebuilders Take Advantage of Low Existing Home Inventory.

• Asia-Pacific: Tokyo consumer inflation rose 3%, the fastest pace in two years and adds support to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) tightening path. April PMI composite rose above 50, suggesting the economy is one of the stronger Asian economies currently.

• Europe: Consumer confidence and the business outlook in the U.K. both declined in April. Given the size of London’s financial markets, the second largest economy in Europe (after Germany) holds an important role in global finance. Trade uncertainties depressed April orders data, adding to weakness in the U.K.

• The Americas: Existing home sales in the U.S. were below the pandemic lows in March as housing affordability remains at all-time lows. However, new construction should ease some of the residential inventory shortages. For example, PulteGroup (PHM) delivered strong first quarter results, exceeding guidance as builders who provide in-house financing offer below-market mortgage rates.

  
  

Looking for Global Opportunities.

• Pacific: Japan’s real estate sector is shrinking. Monday morning, investors got the latest update on condo sales which were down 9.8% from a year ago. Like other developed economies, Japan must manage a slowing economy with rising inflation. Annual CPI was up 3.6% in March, above the Bank of Japan’s inflation goal.

• Europe: Among the G-20, Germany is the most reliant on exports. Last year, exports were roughly 45% of the German economy, and the U.S. is one of its biggest customers. But on the other end of the spectrum is the U.S. Our country’s exports are only 11% of our economy, supporting the notion that the U.S. has the upper hand at the negotiating table.

• The Americas: Industrial production in Mexico rebounded in February as business activity was pulled forward, anticipating the change in trade policy with the U.S. Some, like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), anticipate emerging economies will outperform developed in 2025. For those searching globally, perhaps the decline in the U.S. dollar is hinting that the opportunities will come in emerging economies.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Apr)

• Tuesday: Advance Goods Trade Balance (Mar), Wholesale Inventories (Mar preliminary), Retail Inventories (Mar), FHFA House Price Index (Feb), S&P Case-Shiller National and 20-City House Price Indexes (Feb), JOLTS Job Openings Report (Mar), Conference Board Consumer Confidence Report (Apr) Dallas Fed Services Activity (Apr)

• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 25), ADP Employment Change (Apr), GDP and GDP Price Index (1Q first reading), Personal Consumption (1Q first reading), Core PCE Price Index (1Q first reading), Employment Cost Index (1Q), MNI Chicago PMI (Apr), Personal Income (Mar), Personal Spending (Mar), Real Personal Spending (Mar), Headline and Core PCE Price Index (Mar), Pending Home Sales (Mar)

• Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts (Apr), Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26), Continuing Claims (Apr 19), S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Apr final), ISM Manufacturing Report (Apr), Construction Spending (Mar), Wards Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

• Friday: Change in Nonfarm, Private, and Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr), Two-month Payroll Net Revision (Apr), Unemployment Rate (Apr), Labor Force Participation Rate (Apr), Underemployment Rate (Apr), Average Hourly Earnings (Apr), Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Apr), Factory Orders (Mar), Durable Goods Orders (Mar final), Capital Goods Orders and Shipments (Mar final)

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

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The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.

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