Weekly Market Performance — November 14, 2025

Markets Blog

David Matzko, LPL Research

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of November 10, 2025. Major averages ended a wild week mixed as tech sentiment flipped between positive and negative, taking stocks along for the ride. At the same time, the end of the government shutdown did little to inspire markets as government data remains on delay with some reports unlikely to be published at all. Elsewhere, Treasuries moved lower in an abbreviated trading week, while commodities gained ground as metals resumed their move higher.

Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: Major averages ended a wild week little changed after paring back gains from strong early week sessions. The pending end to the longest government shutdown in American history buoyed sentiment after the Senate pushed a Continuing Resolution forward to the House. Overnight on Wednesday, President Trump signed Congress’ stopgap funding bill to reopen the U.S. government, although market reactions were subdued with optimism around the end of the shutdown broadly priced in. Simultaneously, as the week wore on artificial intelligence sentiment flipped back and forth between positive and negative. The S&P 500 held gains through Wednesday before a fresh wave of volatility washed over Wall Street, sending the equity benchmark down by over 1% for the third time in two weeks. The blow to risk appetite came as headlines were dominated by hawkish Fedspeak and a stumble in rate cut expectations amid jitters around the extended economic data vacuum clouding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cutting path.

Wall Street chatter surrounded Thursday’s notable unwind of momentum trades, which placed big tech names on the defensive alongside popular themes such as retail favorites, most shorted, and high beta names. Volatility spilled over into Friday, but nonetheless, the S&P 500 erased sharp opening losses to claw back above the week-to-date flatline as tech giants fueled a cautious comeback.

International Equities: European markets posted healthy weekly gains on the back of early week strength, inspired by Congress coming together to end the U.S. government shutdown. Early gains cushioned stocks ahead of a risk-off end to the week, while numerous local developments also drove markets. France outperformed after lawmakers suspended President Macron’s pension reform, sending stocks higher as investors focused on lower risk of a government collapse. Also lifting sentiment was the Bank of France revising fourth quarter growth estimates slightly higher. Germany rallied on cooler October consumer inflation, alongside upbeat quarterly reports from chipmaker Infineon Technologies and drugmaker Bayer. Plus, Swiss markets outperformed on reports that the U.S. and Switzerland were near a trade agreement, while the U.K. lagged on weaker-than-expected preliminary third quarter growth data, a big industrial production miss, and ongoing opposition to the feared November budget.

After gaining for four straight sessions, Asian markets ended mixed as tech stocks tumbled the most since April on Friday — challenging weekly gains. South Korea took the largest blow but managed to cling to a weekly advance as November’s record foreign investor outflows continued, while Taiwan reversed a week-to-date gain. After benchmarks in Shanghai and Shenzhen notched fresh decade highs on Thursday, mainland China wiped out weekly gains as its Friday slide was exacerbated by slowing industrial production and retail sales data for October. Meanwhile, Hong Kong was buoyed by homegrown tech enthusiasm early in the week after Alibaba announced plans to revamp its mobile app to rival ChatGPT. Japan led weekly gainers thanks to yen weakness this week and an earlier boost from manufacturer sentiment reaching its highest levels since January 2022.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index traded lower as Treasury yields moved higher across the curve during an abbreviated week for bond markets.

In recent Treasury market news, last week’s Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement went largely as expected with the Treasury Department announcing plans to maintain current auction sizes for nominal coupons and floating rate notes (FRNs) over the November quarter. However, the Treasury included a new note that suggested coupon increases are likely to happen in the future. Remarks from the Treasury that generally pushes back against the narrative around coupon cuts and increased Treasury Bill issuance with markets now expecting the next round of coupon increases to start in February 2027. Moreover, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) showed preference for an eventual increase in front-end coupons, with some reduction in the size of bills. Finally, the Treasury Department noted that Treasury buybacks would continue at the same size and frequency as last quarter. Importantly, since over 90% of existing Treasury issuance is considered off-the-run, these buybacks have increased market liquidity and have been a catalyst of compressed interest rate volatility over the last six months (per the MOVE Index).

In Treasury auction news, Monday's $58 billion 3-year Treasury auction was the strongest 3-year auction result this year with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.85x (the highest number since August 2023) and indirect demand responsible for 63% of the issuance. Wednesday’s $42 billion 10-year auction and Thursday’s $30 billion 30-year auction were additional tests for the ongoing supply/demand concerns within the Treasury market. Demand was slightly weaker than expected, with the auctions tailing (a higher accepted yield than expected) by 0.6 and 1.0 basis points, respectively.

Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex traded higher over the last five days, as proxied by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. After dropping sharply in Wednesday trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices posted a modest weekly advance. Crude prices sold off as the market approached contango after U.S. crude oil inventories rose for the second consecutive week. Despite the drop, oil prices climbed back into positive territory on the week in response to reports of a Ukrainian drone strike on Novorossiysk, a vital Russian export hub, on Friday which fueled concerns that supply could be disrupted. Silver and copper gained ground on the week, while gold prices moved higher on support from a weaker U.S. dollar, speculative flows from traders expecting a Fed rate cut, and steady demand from investors seeking insulation from fiscal risks in Europe. Dollar weakness stemmed from markets reassessing the U.S. economic outlook while awaiting the release schedule for delayed economic data. Although, losses were capped by U.K. fiscal worries.

Economic Weekly Roundup

The economic calendar leaned heavily on the lighter side as the stalemate in Washington continued to impact key data releases. Consumer and wholesale inflation as well as retail sales would be among highlights of the week under normal conditions. However, the vacuum of economic data extended through this week and may continue further. Despite Congress agreeing to a stopgap funding bill this week, the White House announced that consumer inflation and employment data for October are unlikely to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Fed relies heavily on recent government economic data at each monetary policy meeting, and the lack of data likely adds some clouds around the central banks’ rate-cutting path. Nonetheless, policy makers are not flying blind, but only experiencing limited visibility approaching the December meeting.

On the labor market side, ADP numbers (among others) provide significant insights into the labor market. The relationship between ADP and BLS data has improved in recent years, but can be choppy. Averaging away some of the choppiness, both sources give warning signals that the job market is drying up. The Fed will likely focus on the weakening labor market as they continue the rate-cutting cycle.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: Empire Manufacturing (Nov)

• Tuesday: Import and Export Price Indexes (Oct), New York Fed Services Business Activity (Nov), Industrial Production (Oct), Manufacturing (SIC) Production (Oct), Capacity Utilization (Oct), NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov), Total Net TIC Flows (Sep), Net Long-term TIC Flows (Sep), ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate

• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 14), Housing Starts (Oct), Building Permits (Oct preliminary), FOMC Meeting Minutes (Oct 29)

• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15), Continuing Claims (Nov 8), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Nov), Leading Index (Oct), Existing Home Sales (Oct), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Nov)

• Friday: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs (Nov preliminary), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Nov final), Kansas City Fed Services Activity (Nov), Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey (Nov)

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

Asset Class Disclosures –

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

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High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.

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