Weekly Market Performance — November 7, 2025

Markets Blog

David Matzko, LPL Research

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of November 3, 2025. U.S. and international equity markets faced a volatile week, ending broadly lower. Recent earnings reports and fear of an overheating market collided, stoking valuation concerns for artificial intelligence (AI) related shares and denting risk appetite. The risk-off mood continued through week’s end as investors digested mixed U.S. labor market signals and weak consumer confidence data. Bond markets also faced choppy trading that saw U.S. bonds end slightly lower. In commodities and currencies, the dollar weakened against its peers while oil prices dropped and gold steadied.

Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities:The S&P 500 and major U.S. equity averages declined this week, snapping a three-week win streak. Cracks in market breadth entered center stage early in the week as big tech names continued to drive major averages, before valuation concerns around AI related names sparked a slide in the index heavyweights. The AI-focused software firm Palantir Technologies (PLTR) delivered blowout earnings results and guidance last Friday evening, but the results coincided with calls for a pullback from Wall Street CEOs on Monday, elevating angst around AI spending and the AI theme’s sustainability. While AI valuation, index concentration, and overall scrutiny are not new, reports of overheating technical indicators have dominated headlines and added to the drag on sentiment.

Market chatter around investors not rewarding earnings beats this season also crept into headlines as another mid-week headwind after shares of the largest smartphone chipmaker, Qualcomm (QCOM), dropped Thursday morning despite an upbeat forecast Wednesday evening. Risk-off sentiment gathered speed to cap a volatile week as worries about valuations in AI high-flyers collided with mixed signals on the labor market. ADP reported stabilization in the job market, while Challenger, Gray, and Christmas reported the biggest jump in layoffs for the month of October in over 20 years. Further denting risk appetite to end the week was an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge to a three-year low.

International Equities: European stocks also faced downside pressure to log back-to-back weekly losses. While the pause in the AI-led rally weighed on shares broadly, U.K. stocks shrugged off ongoing fiscal and potential tax hike jitters to post more measured gains after the Bank of England (BOE) left rates unchanged following a tight vote, which laid the foundation for a December cut. Markets also analyzed a full slate of earnings reports, with highlights including French electrical device maker Legrand delivering disappointing quarterly sales on cooler data center infrastructure demand. Plus, German banker Commerzbank fell short of profit estimates, dented by higher taxes. Also in corporate news, pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk confirmed its agreement with Washington to offer weight loss aids (GLP-1s) at a lower cost.

Major Asian markets ended mostly lower with regional benchmarks printing their worst week since August, despite a bright start. AI-related valuation concerns spilled overseas, weighing on sentiment and the tech-leaning benchmarks that have led gains in recent weeks. South Korea’s rally took a breather, deepening early week losses that stemmed from authorities at the Korea Exchange issuing an ‘investment caution’ on chipmaker SK Hynix as a result of its red-hot rally. Taiwan closed lower and Japan’s Nikkei led decliners in an abbreviated week with an additional headwind from yen strength and disappointing earnings early in the week. Greater China was the lone market to advance, with Hong Kong remaining above the flatline on support from reports that state-funded data centers will utilize homegrown chips, which also boosted mainland China.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded lower over the last five days. This week, global bond issuance set a new annual record with more than a month to go in the year. Issuance hit $5.94 trillion on Wednesday, topping the previous high in 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Issuance has largely been by financial institutions and increased issuance from sovereign governments to fund ongoing budget deficits. However, recent offerings from companies like Alphabet Inc. and Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc. also make the communications sector stand out with two-thirds more debt than last year. Notably, offerings by Alphabet and Meta were six and four times oversubscribed, respectively, allowing these companies to issue debt at yields marginally higher than U.S. Treasury yields. But despite the record amount of issuance, the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index is up over 6% this year and the Bloomberg Corporate Index is up over 7%, highlighting the strong demand from investors. That said, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last month that global public debt will rise above 100% of GDP by 2029, which would be the highest level since 1948, when nations were recovering from World War II, so record debt issuance likely isn’t going away anytime soon. Relatively high interest rates have helped investors stomach the record issuance this year, but with Treasury yields at the low end of our expected range and credit spreads still tight, investors may not be getting duly compensated to take on large amounts of corporate credit risk right now.

Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex ended little changed to close a week of choppy, rangebound trading. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped amid downside pressures from signs of weaker demand after the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated a 5.2-million-barrel rise in U.S. stockpiles last week, while Saudi Arabia simultaneously lowered crude prices. Oversupply concerns pushed prices back near $60/barrel despite OPEC+ announcing a pause in output hikes coming next quarter as a precautionary move to combat oversupply. Meanwhile, gold prices traded around $4,000/ounce and were little changed this week as renewed safe-haven demand amid U.S. government shutdown uncertainty and late-week dollar weakness helped offset easing rate-cut expectations that led the yellow metal to broadly hug the flatline this week. The greenback stumbled to end the week in response to the surprise drop in consumer sentiment announced Friday after the dollar index briefly crossed the psychologically important 100-level earlier in the week. The dollar also received headwinds from firmer peers, including the euro, yen, and pound.

Economic Weekly Roundup

Private Sector Job Market Approaching Stall Speed. After two months of negative prints, the ADP employment change release for October showed a slight rebound, but only in some sectors. Other sectors, such as business services, information, and hospitality, shed jobs for the third consecutive month. Wages have been unchanged for over a year as demand for labor has weakened. Month to month ADP data can be choppy, so investors should look at three month moving averages. The lapse in appropriations has now caused the government to be two months behind in publishing the official nonfarm payroll report.

As such, private sector data is becoming more precious as government data remains missing in action. In more recent years, the relationship between ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data has improved, but both series can be choppy. Averaging away some of the choppiness, both sources give warning signals that the job market is drying up. The Fed will likely focus on the weakening labor market as they continue the rate-cutting cycle.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: No economic releases scheduled

• Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Oct)

• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 7)

• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8), Headline and Core CPI (Oct), Real Average Hourly Earnings (Oct), Real Average Weekly Earnings (Oct), Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov 1), Federal Budget Balance (Oct)

• Friday: Retail Sales (Oct), Headline and Core PPI (Oct), Business Inventories (Sep)

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

Asset Class Disclosures –

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.

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