Weekly Market Performance — November 21, 2025

Markets Blog

David Matzko, LPL Research

LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of November 10, 2025. Global equities traded lower in the final full week of November trading as a fresh wave of volatility dragged on markets. Artificial intelligence (AI) related jitters remained top of mind for investors ahead of key quarterly results from chipmaker and index heavyweight NVIDIA (NVDA). The slide in U.S. tech names spilled overseas, weighing on risk appetite in Asia amid notable local developments, while European markets also closed lower. Bonds benefited from the risk-off tone as core bonds gained ground this week, while commodities faced downside pressure. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar extended recent strength.

Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: Major averages closed a volatile week lower. Following the recent slide in momentum trades and AI-related names, sentiment remained fragile entering the week ahead of Wednesday evening’s highly anticipated report from AI-bellwether NVDA. Technical analysis signals added to existing jitters after the S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 138 sessions on Monday, colliding with rate cut unease, and ongoing AI skepticism. Plus, downside pressure on big tech increased after Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) received an analyst downgrade early in the week. Nonetheless, better-than-expected NVDA earnings remained the big event of the week.

NVDA CEO Jensen Huang soothed jitters by flagging strong demand for its AI chips, but risk appetite remained shaky. The S&P 500 reversed steep morning gains Thursday in its largest intraday swing since April as markets turned risk-off amid a rotation out of big tech and semiconductor names. Robust results and guidance from NVDA were not enough to prevent markets from slipping back into the recent momentum unwind. Simultaneously, investors digested ongoing consumer concerns stemming from recent reports from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD). To end a jittery week, equities trimmed losses Friday as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets jumped after New York Fed Governor John Williams suggested that the central bank may have room to cut rates next month.

International Equities: European equities also traded lower over the last five days as relatively light headlines left the focus on AI concerns and dented risk appetite overseas. Among local developments, the U.K. remained in the spotlight ahead of the feared release of the 2026 budget next week, with reports suggesting finance minister Rachel Reeves is mulling a raid on bank profits via an increase in bank levies. On the macro front, producer inflation firmed slightly in Germany, while Eurozone flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) results for November were little changed with an uptick in the services gauge countering a drop on the manufacturing side. Corporate headlines focused on buyback announcements from French lender BNP Paribas and Siemens Energy.

Asia-Pacific equities traded lower over the last five days as strong post-NVDA gains on Thursday were unable to offset broader technology-led weekly losses. Taiwan and South Korea both dropped over 3.5%, while Hong Kong led the region with a 5% decline. In local developments, a flare-up in geopolitical tensions also weighed on risk sentiment. Beijing issued travel warnings to its citizens and suspended Japanese seafood imports in response to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks that military force in Taiwan would provide cause for Japan to back its allies in a response. In Japan, sliding tech names overshadowed fiscal jitters as Takaichi’s cabinet approved its largest stimulus package since the pandemic, with increased bond issuance a primary focus of markets. Stimulus also captured the spotlight in China, as reports of potential property stimulus failed to excite investors who are waiting on meaningful consumer stimulus to bust the housing slump. Japan and mainland China both declined this week.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded higher on the week. The Fed released its October meeting minutes Wednesday, and while most of the attention was on the potential lack of support for a December rate cut, what is likely more interesting to the bond market were notes from the discussion around the Fed’s plans for its balance sheet. Currently, the composition of the system open market account (SOMA) portfolio has been overweight long-duration bonds, but going forward, the Fed plans to allocate more to shorter maturity Treasury securities since the Treasury department has favored issuing debt in the 2-year to 7-year parts of the market. So, despite the ongoing reduction of its balance sheet (which is set to end December 1), the overweight allocation to longer maturity bonds has, arguably, kept longer-term bond yields lower than they would have been without Fed support.

Going forward, though, if they follow through with shortening the duration of their portfolio (which is a big IF), fewer dollars will be allocated to longer maturity Treasuries at a time when duration, globally, has been shunned — another reason to think the 10-year and out parts of the Treasury yield curve will remain volatile. With the Fed potentially allocating more of its $4.2 trillion Treasury holdings to shorter maturity Treasury securities, a reliable source of demand for longer-term Treasuries could be going away.

As it relates to expected Fed rate cuts, while the temperature for a December cut was lukewarm at best, the bond market reaction to Fed minutes was limited as it still believes the Fed will cut rates three more times by the end of 2026.

Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex traded lower this week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices traded slightly lower early in the week, before dropping in the latter half on easing geopolitical tensions. Crude prices extended losses after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to work on a U.S. forged peace plan, which would allow Russia to export more fuel should a deal be made. Gold prices traded little changed through Friday afternoon as a late week rise in rate cut bets was countered by weak demand across Asian markets over the last five days. The U.S. Dollar Index traded higher, supported by a boost in liquidity demand for the greenback amid this week’s drop in equities, as well as weakness in major peers including the euro, yen, and pound.

Economic Weekly Roundup

Now that some of the government agencies have returned to office, investors received a bevy of metrics on the economy this week ranging from factory orders data to employment figures. The release of September payrolls data on Thursday was the highlight of the week, arriving stronger than expected and indicating nonfarm payrolls bounced back while the unemployment rate remained stable, with a slight uptick. Thursday’s data also revealed downward revisions to the prior two months’ payrolls results, including August results showing a 4,000 contraction. Month-over-month average hourly earnings cooled slightly, and continuing jobless claims reached their highest level since November 2021.

Although market impacts were limited given the data is relatively stale, investors focused on the details which pointed to continued cooling in the labor market. After shrugging off the announcement that October employment data will not be released, rate cut bets ticked higher Thursday, before jumping back above 60% on Friday in response to Fed Governor Williams’ remarks that a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision on December 10 remains a possibility.

Outside of establishment data, the final Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan for November dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, edging above the preliminary print. The final November print marked a 4.9% month-over-month drop, and near the lowest levels on record for the gauge, but inflation expectations remained contained, edging lower.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Nov), Fed Annual Revision to Industrial Production

• Tuesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-manufacturing Activity (Nov), Retail Sales (Sep), Headline and Core PPI (Sep), FHFA House Price Index (Sep), House Price Purchase Index (3Q), S&P Case-Shiller National and 20-city Home Price Index (Sep), Business Inventories (Aug), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Conference Board Consumer Confidence report (Nov), Pending Home Sales (Oct), Dallas Fed Services Activity (Nov)

• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21), Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22), Continuing Claims (Nov 15), Durable Goods Orders (Sep preliminary), Capital Goods Orders and Shipments (Sep preliminary), MNI Chicago PMI (Nov), Personal Income and Personal Spending (Oct), Leading Index (Sep), Fed Beige Book

• Thursday: Thanksgiving Day holiday, no economic releases scheduled

• Friday: No economic releases scheduled

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

Asset Class Disclosures –

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

For Public Use – Tracking: 829522